What does a one-bedroom condo near King and John cost this fall compared with a year ago? Renting one costs a little more. Buying one costs noticeably less.
Both trends showed up in the same quarter for the same reason. Fewer new condos are being finished in Toronto's core, and fewer will be finished in each of the next three years. Leasing reacts to that kind of shortage within months. Resale pricing takes longer. For anyone comparing the Entertainment District with other downtown neighbourhoods, that lag is the story worth understanding.
The price side kept falling through October
TRREB's district C01 covers the Entertainment District, King West, CityPlace, the Financial District and the waterfront. In October 2026 the MLS Home Price Index put the C01 apartment benchmark at $543,300, down 8.42% from October 2025. The City of Toronto apartment benchmark for the same month was $540,100, down 6.97%. The core has been falling faster than the city around it.
Here are the October transactions behind that benchmark:
- 217 C01 condo apartment sales in October 2026
- $704,609 average price and $605,000 median
- 573 new listings against 1,105 active listings
- 96% average sale-to-list ratio
- 34 average days on market
Sellers accepted about four percent below asking, and a typical listing sat for more than a month. Those figures come from a market where buyers had room to negotiate. On this data alone, the core still looks soft.
The lease side turned first
Urbanation's Q3 2026 rental market release, published October 27, found that condo rents in the former City of Toronto rose 0.7% year over year. It was the core's first annual increase since early 2024. Across the GTHA, active condo rental listings were down 25% from a year earlier and 43% from their peak, and leasing had outpaced new listings for five straight quarters. Toronto asking rents for October, from the national rent report Rentals.ca publishes with Urbanation, rose 1.6% year over year to $2,590. That ended 32 months of declines.
The latest district-level lease figures, TRREB's Q2 2026 rental report, show C01 moving ahead of that turn. GTA-wide one-bedroom rents fell 2.3% year over year in Q2 and two-bedrooms fell 1.7%, even as leasing volume rose. C01 went the other way.
| C01 condo leases | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| One-bedroom leases signed | 3,013 | 2,575 |
| One-bedroom average rent | $2,449 | $2,475 |
| Two-bedroom leases signed | 1,374 | 1,114 |
| Two-bedroom average rent | $3,429 | $3,494 |
C01 tenants signed fewer leases, roughly 15% fewer one-bedroom leases and 19% fewer two-bedroom leases, and paid slightly more for each one. In the rest of the GTA, more leases were signed at lower rents. In the core, fewer units changed hands and rents edged up.
Two-bedrooms are leading. C01 two-bedroom rents rose about 1.9% in Q2, compared with about 1.1% for one-bedrooms. In October's Toronto asking-rent figures, two-bedrooms were up 4.0% and one-bedrooms up 0.1%.
Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand described the direction plainly in the release:
"The recovery in rents will gain momentum as overall rental supply declines, since the increase in purpose-built construction will only replace part of the drop in condo completions."
The shortage is already scheduled
Rents can turn before prices because supply is already set years in advance. A tower that wasn't under construction by 2025 can't deliver units in 2027.
Urbanation's Q3 2026 condo market report, released October 19, shows the shortage building:
- GTHA condo completions in Q3 2026 fell to 2,578, the lowest quarterly total since Q4 2019.
- Year-to-date completions were 17,051, down 17% from the first three quarters of 2025.
- Condo units under construction fell 38% year over year to 35,920, the lowest level since early 2012.
- Scheduled completions fall to 15,825 in 2027, 12,065 in 2028 and 4,213 in 2029.
For comparison, Urbanation's forecast for all of 2026 is 20,868 completions, down from 29,077 in 2025. Many of the investor-owned units that finished in recent years went straight onto the rental market. Each year from here adds fewer of them.
Investment groups are already buying with that schedule in view. Of 760 new condo sales across the GTHA in Q3, 339 were bulk purchases by investment groups. They averaged $763 per square foot, 40% below the original prices in the same buildings, compared with $1,045 per square foot for regular sales outside the luxury segment. Those buyers bought finished, unsold units at a deep discount just as rental listings were shrinking. The bulk price is a GTHA figure and not a C01 resale benchmark. It shows where professional money moved this fall.
On King Street West, the pipeline has addresses
Three projects in and around the Entertainment District show what a thinner pipeline looks like up close.
KING Toronto, 489–539 King Street West. Allied Properties REIT's Q2 2026 quarterly report shows 405 of the project's 440 residential units, or 92%, pre-sold as of June 30, 2026. Allied expects condominium occupancy to begin in the second quarter of 2027, with sold units closing in the fourth quarter of 2027. After Q2, the maturity of the construction lending facility was extended from July 31, 2026, to January 31, 2028, because of construction delays. The report puts the Tarion outside occupancy date at May 31, 2028. If the units aren't delivered by then, purchasers are entitled to have their deposits returned. Nearly all of those 440 homes are already sold, so few of them will ever reach the open resale market as new supply.
400–420 King Street West. A City of Toronto report from February 2024 describes TMG Builders' 49-storey, 612-unit condominium at King and Spadina, with interior finishes scheduled through December 2026.
689 King Street West. Just west of Bathurst, Manga Hotels has returned with a revised proposal, reported by UrbanToronto on October 16, 2026. It is a 30-storey building with 251 hotel suites and 160 newly introduced purpose-built rental apartments: 80 one-bedrooms, 48 two-bedrooms and 32 three-bedrooms. It would rise near the entrance to the King West station on the Ontario Line, which is under construction. These are new homes planned as rentals from the start, on a site whose earlier approved scheme was all hotel. That fits Hildebrand's point that purpose-built rentals will replace only part of the drop in condo completions.
Under the 2024 City report, the next sizeable condo delivery at King and Spadina was on a schedule running to the end of 2026. The large project farther west at King and Portland is pushed into 2027. The newest proposal on the strip adds rentals.
What the October rate increase changes
On October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate by a quarter point to 2.50%. It had held at 2.25% since its cut on October 29, 2025. Borrowing became slightly more expensive in the same quarter that core rents stopped falling, so the cost of renting and the cost of owning both rose at the margin.
Rents rising while prices fall changes the ratio between them. Annualize the Q2 C01 lease figures and divide by the C01 average condo sale price for the same quarter. A one-bedroom's yearly rent was about 3.9% of that average price in Q2 2025 and about 4.1% in Q2 2026. For two-bedrooms, the figure moved from about 5.5% to 5.8%. The calculation is rough, because the sale price is an average across all unit sizes and the gross figure leaves out carrying costs. Still, the ratio moved the same way for both unit types. A dollar of purchase price in C01 bought more rental income in mid-2026 than it did a year earlier, and October's 8.42% benchmark decline arrived after that.
This article is general market information and not financial, legal or investment advice. Anyone weighing a purchase, a pre-construction contract or a rental should confirm their own situation with the right professional.
Quick answers
Are Entertainment District condo prices still falling? Yes, as of October 2026. The C01 apartment benchmark was $543,300, down 8.42% year over year, a steeper drop than the City of Toronto apartment benchmark.
Are downtown rents rising again? Urbanation's Q3 2026 data shows condo rents in the former City of Toronto up 0.7% year over year, the first annual gain in the core since early 2024.
Is a wave of new King West condos about to hit the market? The research points to fewer, not more. GTHA scheduled completions fall each year through 2029, and KING Toronto, the largest project on the strip, was 92% pre-sold as of June 30, 2026, with occupancy expected in 2027.
If you're deciding between renting and buying in the core this winter, or comparing two-bedroom resales against King West pre-construction assignments, Selin Yasar can go through the building-level numbers with you and help time your move around the shrinking supply. Start your tailored home search.
